Chief global economist for Bank of America sees 7 interest rate hikes in 2022

Somehow, I doubt anyone is reading the tea leaves correctly. I certainly don’t know what the answer is but one guy predicting 7, others predicting 4, and the nation’s central bank is talking about 3 interest rate hikes in 2022. I’ll split the difference here and predict 5 although I bet you for some reason there will only be two. I’m hedging.

The Fed is likely to raise its now near zero short-term interest rate target seven times over the course of this year, on its way to a stopping point of between 2.75% and 3%, wrote Ethan Harris, chief global economist for the bank.

“The Fed has all but admitted that it is behind the curve” when it comes to controlling inflation, and this monetary policy path “should affect the economy with a lag, weighing on 2023 growth,” Mr. Harris wrote. He said in his note he had trimmed his growth outlook for this year to a 3.6% increase, and he now sees inflation, stripped of food and energy costs, rising by 3%, from 2.6%, over 2022.

The Bank of America forecast for monetary policy compares with the central bank outlook released at its December meeting, which points to the possibility of three rate rises this year. A number of Fed officials have affirmed that they see three rate rises, although some officials, like St. Louis Fed leader James Bullard, reckons four rate rises could be appropriate, while Fed governor Christopher Waller said even more increases are on the table.

Bank of America Fed Outlook Gets More Hawkish Amid Inflation Worries – WSJ